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## Finance and capital markets

### Course: Finance and capital markets > Unit 8

Lesson 5: Foreign exchange and trade- Currency exchange introduction
- Currency effect on trade
- Currency effect on trade review
- Pegging the yuan
- Chinese Central Bank buying treasuries
- American-Chinese debt loop
- Debt loops rationale and effects
- China keeps peg but diversifies holdings
- Carry trade basics
- Comparing GDP among countries

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# Currency exchange introduction

If you track the value of a currency, you'll notice its value fluctuates. In this video, we introduce to how exchange rates can fluctuate. Created by Sal Khan.

## Want to join the conversation?

- Why not have just one international currency? Would this hurt trade and hinder competition?(20 votes)
- A good example is the Euro which is shared by many European countries, many of whom are are having significant debt issues. The individual countries do not maintain control over the Euro, is taken care of by the European Centralized Bank. Therefore a country can't lower the value of the currency and in turn attract more interest in their exported goods or foreign investment in local assets to increase revenue and pay down their debt.(10 votes)

- What is the real exchange rate instead of 10 yuan per dollar as Sal says in0:51(5 votes)
- It varies from day to day and depends on where you buy your yuan. For example, airports will give you fewer yuan per dollar than banks. When we were in China in 2007 it was about 8 yuan to the dollar. Just now, when I Googled "currency exchange rates" it was 6.37 yuan to the dollar. So, the dollar is worth less now than it was 5 years ago. No surprise there, right? Hope this helps. Good Luck.(14 votes)

- How do people figure out the exchange rates if millions of people are probably selling at different rates?(7 votes)
- Is this video not simply saying that each currency is subject to supply and demand, and that the exchange rate is the market price, expressed in relative terms?(6 votes)
- What is the actual physical process(es) that take place in a foreign exchange. For example if I want to buy a widget from someone in China and the exchange rate is par (1:1) and it costs me 100USD, then how does the producer get Yuan in China. My USD are in a US bank in the US and he would need Yuan presumably from a Chinese bank in China. So what are the actual processes that would need to take place?

I have presumed that my USD would get transferred to a Chinese owned bank account in the US and on the other side of the pond a transfer from some offsetting Chinese account would get transferred to the producers account in China.

Would this have to go through the Chinese central bank accounts both in the US and China or could it be an approved bank on both sides?

That begs the question then how would they control the capital flows in and out of the country?(4 votes)- A Chinese company sells a widget to a customer in the USA. In exchange for that widget the company receives $100 USD. If the company wants Yuan instead of USD, they would deposit the USD in their local bank and exchange it for Yuan. Now the bank has $100 USD. If the bank wanted Yuan they would exchange the USD with another bank, or with the central bank. Of course, in reality this $100 USD is probably not cash, it's a bank deposit that is wired from one institution to another. The specific path of an international wire would depend on the institutions involved.

The central bank has the ability to control how much of each currency is in the country. They can buy and sell either with member banks in order to achieve the balance they desire.(3 votes)

- It is Chinese or Taiwanese currency. FYI, in China, about 6 1/2 yuan = $1. In Taiwan, where the currency is also called yuan, about 30 yuan = $1.(6 votes)

- How does a depreciation of a currency actually improve a nation's balance of payment? How does is make exports more expensive? Shouldn't an appreciation make exports more expensive? Help!(2 votes)
- A depreciation makes a country's exports cheaper (for other nations), which means the nation sells more and increases (or improves) their balance of payments.(3 votes)

- What would happen if instead of trying to buy/sell smaller bits at a time, an actor would sell/buy all he could/needed, at once?(2 votes)
- Theoretically, if everyone would work like that the cashflow would probably be fine.

Realistically, if you had a lot of money on you you would be ready to pay more for some goods and inflation would rise, until your "large pack of money" would have normal value (presuming that everyone had a large sack of money).

(this was written from an microeconomic point of view, but the basics can be applied here too)

Nominal value would be high, real value would be low.(3 votes)

- How are foreign exchange rates determined for currency pairs like pound and yuan? As the dollar is used in international trade a UK company will convert the pound to dollar then buy from China who will then convert the dollars to yuan so it will determine only the dollar-yuan and dollar-pound exchange rate will the exchange rate be determined with reference to that of dollar ?(3 votes)
- I wanted to know what happens when the central bank starts buying or selling its currency, and how that affects the exchange rate?(1 vote)
- selling = devalue

buying its own curreny = increase value

more supply in the market = lower value

less supply in the market = higher price

The law of supply & demand applies here(5 votes)

## Video transcript

What I want to do in this
video is to give you an intuitive sense of how a market
for currencies would actually work. And it's very non-inuitive for
a lot of people because we're going to be talking about
currencies becoming more expensive or cheaper, or the
price of a currency in terms of another one. And what I want to do
is give you a very intuitive feel for that. So let's say, just because this
is a hot topic right now, let's just make the two
currencies the Chinese renminbi and the U.S. dollar. And the unit of exchange in
China is a little confusing because sometimes they use the
word renminbi and sometimes the word yuan. The yuan is the unit
of the renminbi. So let's say right now, if
I were to just go on some website-- and this is not the
actual exchange rate right now, but let's say right now the
quoted exchange rate is 10 yuan per U.S. dollar. 10 yuan is equal to $1. And every time I say dollar in
this video, I'm referring to the U.S. dollar. And I think this makes sense to
a lot of people, if I have $1, I want to convert it to
yuan, I get 10 of them. If I have 10 yuan, I want to
convert it to dollars, someone's going to give
me a dollar for it. Now let's imagine a situation,
and in the next few videos I'll construct actual trade
imbalances where this would actually happen, but let's say
we live in a reality where there are 1,000 yuan. So let's say someone has
1,000 yuan and wants to convert to dollars. Now, let's say on this side, and
if we just superficially looked at this 1,000 yuan and
looked at the quoted rate, we'd say, hey, that 1,000 yuan,
you get 10 yuan per dollar, so that should be
$100 at the quoted rate. Let's say you have two other
actors over here, and obviously these markets involve
many, many, more than just the three people, but this
will help us simplify, or at least understand how these
exchange rates would work. Let's say that this person right
here with the mustache and maybe a hat as well, let's
say that he has $100 that he needs to convert to yuan. Maybe he wants to buy some
Chinese goods, maybe he's a Chinese factory owner who sold
his goods in the U.S. for $100 and now he needs to convert
it back to yuan to pay his employees or pay his own
mortgage or who knows what. And let's say that there's
another person, and let's say that she also has $100
that needs to be converted into yuan. So net, what's happening here? What's the total demand to
convert yuan into dollars, and dollars into yuan? Well, if you look at the whole
market, you have $200 that needed to be converted
into yuan. Let me write this down. We have a situation where
$200 needs to be converted into yuan. And then, on the other side of
that transaction, we have 1,000 yuan that needs to be
converted into dollars. So now we have 1,000 yuan. And for simplicity, these
are the only actors. They are representing the entire
market, although, as we know, in currency markets
especially there's thousands or even millions of
actors actively participating in them. So what's going to happen? All of these people might just
go on the internet and look up the current exchange rate,
or the last exchange that occurred and say, hey this
$100, I should be able to convert it into $1,000 yuan. But she also says, I should be
able to convert this $100 into 1,000 yuan, so they collectively
think that that $200 can be converted
into 2,000 yuan. I'll put this in
question marks. So will they be able to convert
this into 2,000 yuan? And this person over here, you
know, he's saying just at the current exchange rate, maybe
I'll be able to get-- for my 1,000 yuan, maybe
I'll get $100. But everyone wants to maximize
the amount of the other currency they get for
obvious reasons. They want to maximize the amount
of money they get. Now, will these two people be
able to convert their money into 2,000 yuan? Remember what I said, this is
the entire market, and it's a huge simplification, but there
is this imbalance here. More dollars into yuan than
yuan into dollars. Now they won't be able to
convert into 2,000 yuan because there's only 1,000 yuan
that wants to be traded. So you can imagine, this guy
over here, maybe he wants to do it slowly just to kind of see
what the market is like. So let's say at first
he puts 10 yuan up, essentially for a bid. You could view it either way,
you could say that maybe one of these people put $1 up for
bid, and this guy's bidding on the dollar in terms of yuan, or
this guy's putting yuan up for bid and these guys are going
to bid on it in terms of dollars, either one. And that's why it's sometimes
confusing with currencies, because you're buying
another currency. But since this guy is more in
demand, to simplify things I'll make him the person that's
kind of able to create an auction-type situation. Which really is what the markets
are trying to do, so that you can equalize
supply and demand. So he might initially say he has
$100 yuan and he wants to convert it, so he says,
you know what? I'm willing to sell
100 yuan for $10. So let's say he sells
100 yuan for $10. so he sells 100-- or offers I
should say, offers to sell 100 yuan for $10, and he just thinks
that that's a fair offer price right over there. And that's this guy over here,
this guy actually converting yuan into dollars. Well, what's going to happen? Well one of these people is just
going to jump at that and say oh, you know what, I think
that's a fair price. And so let's say this woman
right over here takes it. Actually both of them maybe
saw that offer to sell 100 yuan for $10, and they both try
to click their mouse or however they're trying to make
the transaction happen. But let's say she clicks her
mouse a little faster and she gets the transaction. So let's say that person, let's
call this person B. And this is person A and
this is person C. So person B accepts. So two things happen just then:
One is, person C says, wow that was pretty fast,
someone was very willing to take it for 10 yuan per U.S.
dollar and this guy goes, my god, I need to convert my
money into yuan, but I wasn't able to. Someone else beat
me to the punch. So this guy over here is like
hey, maybe people are willing to give me more dollars
per yuan. So let's say that this guy right
over here-- this guy in orange-- he then offers to sell,
let's say he wants to sell 90 yuan for $10. Notice the price of the yuan has
now gone up, or the price of the dollar has now gone
down, either one. Those symmetric statements,
they mean the exact same thing. So all of a sudden, this person
has a lot of dollars he needs to convert into yuan, so
he accepts really fast, so person A accepts. I'm doing a huge
oversimplication, but it gives you the general idea
to show you that this really is a market. So person A accepts. All of a sudden, we have a
new quoted exchange rate. We all of a sudden have an
exchange rate of what is this, 9 yuan, so we have a new quoted
rate or the transaction happens at 9 yuan per dollar. Now what's happening? I think you see the dynamic
that's going to happen. There's more dollars that need
to be converted into yuan then yuan that needs to be converted
into dollars. So this guy actually sees
there's a lot of demand to get his 1,000 yuan. He's going to keep offering
fewer and fewer yuan per dollar. Or, these guys are going to
start accepting fewer and fewer yuan for each
of their dollars. So as this happens, as the price
of the yuan will go up. Notice, the price of the
yuan went up here. It was 10 yuan per dollar, now
it's 9 yuan per dollar. Or you could say the price of
the dollar has gone down. And this will just keep
happening until all of them are able to get rid
of their currency. There's no mathematical formula
to say what the clearing price is, it's actually
dependent on how badly each of these people are
willing to transact and really how good they are at
gaming each other. But the general result here,
and this is kind of what I really want you to get from this
video, is that because there's no law in a market
exchange rate mechanism that says this has to be the exchange
rate-- we'll explore how you can peg it in the
future-- but there's nothing that says that this has
to always be the case. If there's more demand for yuan
then dollars, as we see in this example, the price of
the dollar will go down. Which means the exact same thing
as the price of yuan will go up. I really want you to
internalize this. It will go up in terms of
dollars, price of dollars, in terms of yuan will go down. And this is the crux of
foreign exchange. If you can at least internalize
these ideas and to understand that there really is
this market out here based on the supply and
demand of yuan. Over here, the demand for yuan
is exceeding its supply. So price will go up. Or you can view it the other
way, the demand for dollars is below its supply, so the
price will go down. Anyway, I'll let you think about
that for a little bit. In the next video, we're going
to apply this concept to see how this freely floating
exchange rate can help equalize, or should help
equalize trade imbalances in an ideal world.